SCRUFF

SCRUFFtistics: 2016 Election Survey

Clinton Wins 79% of Gay Vote, Trump Gets 11%

by Tim Fitzsimons
November 7, 2016

It's been 510 days since Donald Trump descended his golden escalator and 575 days since Hillary Clinton said on YouTube "I'm running for president."

In our fourth SCRUFFtistic, we take one final look at the 2016 presidential election. Our first was a national survey of primary voters, followed by state primary surveys in both California and New York. We've learned a lot since we started surveying SCRUFF guys about politics, and with this SCRUFFtistic we tried to ask more questions about the politics of our users instead of simply asking them who they plan to vote for.

The response was overwhelming. Nearly 13,000 SCRUFF guys took our full survey and answered dozens of questions on matters ranging from transgender rights to gun control to split ticket voting.

Here are some details about our survey:

  • The survey was pushed to all SCRUFF guys (gay, bisexual, curious, and transgender men) in the United States
  • The survey was active from October 28 to October 31
  • Of the 12,880 responses that were recorded, 12,175 were deemed "likely voters" by SCRUFF's likely voter model

Final Results

As has been the case in all of our polling this election season, Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite with support from roughly 79% of gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (GBTQ) guys. Donald Trump is supported by around 11% of GBTQ guys, while third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein receive the support of roughly 2.5% of guys. An additional 5% of GBTQ voters either plan to vote for another candidate or are undecided. Here's how that translates into an Electoral College map:

SCRUFF's results largely mirror the scientific surveys of LGBT voters. Of course, our data only include men, but belonging to the "LGBT" group may be a more predictive demographic factor than race, age, geography, or even education level. For more on that theory, see this analysis by Carl Bialik at FiveThirtyEight.

Here's are the states where Clinton and Trump enjoy the strongest relative support from the GBTQ community:

Clinton Trump
District of Columbia —87.89% Louisiana — 28.32%
Oregon — 87.71% Wyoming — 27.78%
Maine — 86.49% North Dakota — 23.08%
Washington — 86.36% Alabama — 20.48%
Montana — 84.00% Delaware — 20.00%

Donald Trump's vaunted outreach to LGBT voters seems to have had little impact. Trump invited Peter Thiel, the billionaire PayPal investor, to be the first openly gay person to address a Republican National Convention. Trump recently held up a rainbow flag at a rally and surrogates have worked to soften his message on LGBT rights. But the overwhelming response shows that LGBT voters still say #ImWithHer. As a way to assess the efficacy of Donald Trump's alleged outreach to queer voters, we asked this question:

Also, guys told us that the 2016 election has pushed them toward the Democratic party, even as national trends show that voters are less likely than ever to register with a party when they register to vote:

Overall, 2016 made me more likely to...

Overall %
Support Democratic candidates 39.09
Support third-party candidates 19.54
Support Republican candidates 5.06
Less likely to vote 2.15
No impact on voting plans 34.14

That said, a solid third of respondents still plan to "split the ticket," or vote for candidates of different parties. 63% of guys said they plan to vote for the same party across their ballot, but 37% say they will vote for different parties.

Since our previous polling had demonstrated a strong overall preference for Democratic candidates amongst GBTQ men in the U.S., we decided to ask specific political questions in this survey to get a more nuanced look at the political views of gay men. Here are some of our favorite stats:

General Politics

Of the following unresolved LGBTQ legislative issues, which is the most important to you?

Overall %
Federal employment non-discrimination act 38.57
Combating religious freedom laws 25.79
PrEP access 10.10
Same-sex adoption 9.20
Trans rights 6.05
HIV criminalization 4.80
OTHER 5.49

Aside from LGBTQ issues, what do you think the next president's top priority should be?

Overall %
Climate 15.60
Unemployment 11.84
Debt 10.60
Terrorism 8.75
Healthcare 8.73
Guns 8.14
Income 7.90
Police 7.09
College 6.07
Immigration 5.16
Elections 4.93
Taxes 4.41
Trade 0.78

Economic Questions

Which of the following concerns you more?

Overall %
Big Business 67.69
Big Government 32.31

Please select the economic point of view that most closely aligns with yours:

Overall %
The government should increase taxes on the wealthy to pay for entitlements and programs that benefit lower income and middle class people
78.69
The government should cut taxes and regulations on businesses and individuals to spur economic growth
21.31

Racial Justice

People of color are disproportionately targeted by the police

Overall %
Agree 76.96
Disagree 23.04

Race relations have improved under President Obama

Overall %
Agree 37.67
Disagree 62.33

GUN CONTROL

It is interesting to note the strong party correlation in the responses to the above two questions. Republicans are much more likely to view the Pulse attack as terrorism and to support pro-gun candidates:

Party Affiliation Attack Description %
Democratic Hate crime 47.10
Democratic Terrorism 4.65
Democratic BOTH 44.06
Democratic NEITHER 4.19
Republican Hate crime 22.70
Republican Terrorism 31.36
Republican BOTH 39.24
Republican NEITHER 6.71
Independent voter / NPA Hate crime 39.76
Independent voter / NPA Terrorism 10.55
Independent voter / NPA BOTH 42.25
Independent voter / NPA NEITHER 7.43
Other Hate crime 33.65
Other Terrorism 14.90
Other BOTH 39.90
Other NEITHER 11.54
NOT REGISTERED Hate crime 45.99
NOT REGISTERED Terrorism 6.79
NOT REGISTERED BOTH 36.93
NOT REGISTERED NEITHER 10.28
Party Affiliation Attack Impact %
Democratic More likely to vote for gun-control candidates 49.56
Democratic More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates 1.61
Democratic No impact 48.83
Republican More likely to vote for gun-control candidates 13.26
Republican More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates 31.83
Republican No impact 54.91
Independent voter / NPA More likely to vote for gun-control candidates 32.12
Independent voter / NPA More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates 10.27
Independent voter / NPA No impact 57.61
Other More likely to vote for gun-control candidates 22.60
Other More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates 16.35
Other No impact 61.06
NOT REGISTERED More likely to vote for gun-control candidates 42.16
NOT REGISTERED More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates 7.49
NOT REGISTERED No impact 50.35

The right to bear arms (the second amendment) is very important.

Overall %
Agree 52.73
Disagree 47.27

LGBTQ Politics

The struggle for LGBTQ rights in the U.S. is mostly complete

Overall %
Agree 15.52
Disagree 84.48

The fight for transgender rights in the U.S. is mostly complete

Overall %
Agree 5.94
Disagree 94.06

The rainbow flag 🏳️‍🌈 represents me

Overall %
Agree 63.43
Disagree 36.57

Foreign Affairs

Immigrants pose a threat to our society (economically or in terms of security)

Overall %
Agree 16.31
Disagree 83.69

Russia is a growing threat to our national security

Overall %
Agree 77.66
Disagree 22.34

The U.S. has a moral responsibility to take in refugees from countries like Syria.

Overall %
Agree 67.14
Disagree 32.86

The U.S. should deploy ground troops to help resolve foreign conflicts.

Overall %
Agree 22.48
Disagree 77.52

The U.S. should actively advance democracy in foreign countries.

Overall %
Agree 42.83
Disagree 57.17

Other Questions

Marijuana should be legalized

Overall %
Agree 85.69
Disagree 14.31

The 2016 election is rigged.

Overall %
Agree 18.43
Disagree 81.57

YOU'VE GOTTEN THIS FAR...

Interested in taking a deep dive into our full survey results? Click here for our data spreadsheet.

Are you a political scientist interested in using this data to study the GBTQ vote? If so, please contact us at media@scruff.com!

SCRUFF's final 2016 SCRUFFtistic is here! With nearly 13,000 respondents, Hillary Clinton swept the GBTQ vote with...

Posted by SCRUFF on  Monday, November 7, 2016