SCRUFFtistics: 2016 Election Survey
Clinton Wins 79% of Gay Vote, Trump Gets 11%
by Tim Fitzsimons
November 7, 2016
It's been 510 days since Donald Trump descended his golden escalator and 575 days since Hillary Clinton said on YouTube "I'm running for president."
In our fourth SCRUFFtistic, we take one final look at the 2016 presidential election. Our first was a national survey of primary voters, followed by state primary surveys in both California and New York. We've learned a lot since we started surveying SCRUFF guys about politics, and with this SCRUFFtistic we tried to ask more questions about the politics of our users instead of simply asking them who they plan to vote for.
The response was overwhelming. Nearly 13,000 SCRUFF guys took our full survey and answered dozens of questions on matters ranging from transgender rights to gun control to split ticket voting.
Here are some details about our survey:
- The survey was pushed to all SCRUFF guys (gay, bisexual, curious, and transgender men) in the United States
- The survey was active from October 28 to October 31
- Of the 12,880 responses that were recorded, 12,175 were deemed "likely voters" by SCRUFF's likely voter model
As has been the case in all of our polling this election season, Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite with support from roughly 79% of gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (GBTQ) guys. Donald Trump is supported by around 11% of GBTQ guys, while third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein receive the support of roughly 2.5% of guys. An additional 5% of GBTQ voters either plan to vote for another candidate or are undecided. Here's how that translates into an Electoral College map:
SCRUFF's results largely mirror the scientific surveys of LGBT voters. Of course, our data only include men, but belonging to the "LGBT" group may be a more predictive demographic factor than race, age, geography, or even education level. For more on that theory, see this analysis by Carl Bialik at FiveThirtyEight.
Here's are the states where Clinton and Trump enjoy the strongest relative support from the GBTQ community:
|District of Columbia —87.89%||Louisiana — 28.32%|
|Oregon — 87.71%||Wyoming — 27.78%|
|Maine — 86.49%||North Dakota — 23.08%|
|Washington — 86.36%||Alabama — 20.48%|
|Montana — 84.00%||Delaware — 20.00%|
Donald Trump's vaunted outreach to LGBT voters seems to have had little impact. Trump invited Peter Thiel, the billionaire PayPal investor, to be the first openly gay person to address a Republican National Convention. Trump recently held up a rainbow flag at a rally and surrogates have worked to soften his message on LGBT rights. But the overwhelming response shows that LGBT voters still say #ImWithHer. As a way to assess the efficacy of Donald Trump's alleged outreach to queer voters, we asked this question:
Also, guys told us that the 2016 election has pushed them toward the Democratic party, even as national trends show that voters are less likely than ever to register with a party when they register to vote:
Overall, 2016 made me more likely to...
|Support Democratic candidates||39.09|
|Support third-party candidates||19.54|
|Support Republican candidates||5.06|
|Less likely to vote||2.15|
|No impact on voting plans||34.14|
That said, a solid third of respondents still plan to "split the ticket," or vote for candidates of different parties. 63% of guys said they plan to vote for the same party across their ballot, but 37% say they will vote for different parties.
Since our previous polling had demonstrated a strong overall preference for Democratic candidates amongst GBTQ men in the U.S., we decided to ask specific political questions in this survey to get a more nuanced look at the political views of gay men. Here are some of our favorite stats:
Of the following unresolved LGBTQ legislative issues, which is the most important to you?
|Federal employment non-discrimination act||38.57|
|Combating religious freedom laws||25.79|
Aside from LGBTQ issues, what do you think the next president's top priority should be?
Which of the following concerns you more?
Please select the economic point of view that most closely aligns with yours:
The government should increase taxes on the wealthy to pay for entitlements and programs that benefit lower income and middle class people
The government should cut taxes and regulations on businesses and individuals to spur economic growth
People of color are disproportionately targeted by the police
Race relations have improved under President Obama
It is interesting to note the strong party correlation in the responses to the above two questions. Republicans are much more likely to view the Pulse attack as terrorism and to support pro-gun candidates:
|Party Affiliation||Attack Description||%|
|Independent voter / NPA||Hate crime||39.76|
|Independent voter / NPA||Terrorism||10.55|
|Independent voter / NPA||BOTH||42.25|
|Independent voter / NPA||NEITHER||7.43|
|NOT REGISTERED||Hate crime||45.99|
|Party Affiliation||Attack Impact||%|
|Democratic||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||49.56|
|Democratic||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||1.61|
|Republican||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||13.26|
|Republican||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||31.83|
|Independent voter / NPA||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||32.12|
|Independent voter / NPA||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||10.27|
|Independent voter / NPA||No impact||57.61|
|Other||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||22.60|
|Other||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||16.35|
|NOT REGISTERED||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||42.16|
|NOT REGISTERED||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||7.49|
|NOT REGISTERED||No impact||50.35|
The right to bear arms (the second amendment) is very important.
The struggle for LGBTQ rights in the U.S. is mostly complete
The fight for transgender rights in the U.S. is mostly complete
The rainbow flag 🏳️🌈 represents me
Immigrants pose a threat to our society (economically or in terms of security)
Russia is a growing threat to our national security
The U.S. has a moral responsibility to take in refugees from countries like Syria.
The U.S. should deploy ground troops to help resolve foreign conflicts.
The U.S. should actively advance democracy in foreign countries.
Marijuana should be legalized
The 2016 election is rigged.
YOU'VE GOTTEN THIS FAR...
Interested in taking a deep dive into our full survey results? Click here for our data spreadsheet.
Are you a political scientist interested in using this data to study the GBTQ vote? If so, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org!